| Is Warren Buffet Lucky or is this a survivorship bias?
The best example is there is a stadium full of 100,000 people who compete to see who's best. 2 people pair up and flip a coin, 1 person flips and the other predicts. After the 1st round, there will be 50,000 people left. How long will it take to get a winner? Note that because the numbers are even there will be cases where 1/2 person is left where we could have some sort of tie breaker.
at the end of this contest, there will one person who guessed the coin 17x in a row. Are they lucky or skilled or just a survivorship bias |