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Lotteries

Some analysis on lotteries using the excel formulas

Odds of winning.

Comparison to flipping a coin

Payouts.

We will develop a spreadsheet that shows how much you can expect to win or lose.

Lotteries

A number of ping pong balls are put in a glass device that blows air from the bottom, cause the balls to randomly circulate.

A button is pressed for say 6 numbers and a random ball with a number is displayed.

So assuming there are 50 balls the odds of picking the first number is 1 in 50.

There are only 49 balls left so the odds of picking the second are 1 in 49.

so for 6 balls

1/50 * 1/49 * 1/48 * 1/47 * 1/46 * 1/45 = 1/11,441,304,000

or 1 in 11.4 billion

I've noticed a pattern of consecutive numbers quite often. This is a form of the birthday problem.

So let's figure out the odds using Excel.

Process
  • Store 60 balls
  • Pick a random one
  • remove the selected ball from the list
  • Repeat the process 5 more times

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