| 1. | Drive policy (covid) on science, plan, the end game |
| 2. | He's not cynical about govts bc it's a cheap shortcut to approximating wisdom |
| 3. | Be Judicious in your criticisms |
| 4. | Doesn't agree with restrictive policies |
| 5. | They're not remotely driven by something resembling a scientific plan, |
| 6. | It's pretty appalling |
| 7. | What surprised JP the most is how rapidly we stampeded to imitate a totalitarian state |
| 8. | If you think it through a little bit no one really knew how serious the virus was going to be, so it was an unknown threat |
| 9. | Heard of animals or schools of fish, this phenomenon is common throughout the animal kingdom |
| 10. | The cost of overreacting to a threat is minimal compared to underreacting to a real threat, if you underreact you can die. If you overreact you just get tired for a minute |
| 11. | Heard's stampede bc the most neurotic member will jump first and the rest will, instantly follow them |
| 12. | Bad govt behavior is excusable when they don't know what threat they're facing |
| 13. | It's appalling in Canada the breakdown of our rights for mobility, freedom of speech, etc. |
| 14. | Not a fan of bills of rights. |
| 15. | You have all the rights there are except those that are expressly forbidden by detailed legislation, mostly generated from the bottom up, English common law tradition |
| 16. | Disheartening that nothing's behind the restrictions except for random polling, it's maddening, angering |
| 17. | Of course, [polling] is out of whack, Jesus Christ |
| 18. | How do you get accurate polling data? Timeframe, every day, hour, minute, week, 2 wk? |
| 19. | Who answers the phone calls when you do the polls? |
| 20. | How did you construct the questions? |
| 21. | Are you eliciting a kind of answer bc you paid insufficient attn to the way the question was posed? |
| 22. | It's not guidance from the polls, it's a quasi-informed random walk, rather than thinking it through |
| 23. | Canadiens who aren't vaccinated can't leave the country. WHAT THE HELL? WHY IS THAT! |
| 24. | Here's the deal I'll get the vaccine, you LEAVE ME THE FUCK ALONE. |
| 25. | Did that work? No. |
| 26. | That's an issue with the American's which is outside the Canadien purview |
| 27. | Restrictions to get back into Canada are even more stringent. Why did I get the vaccine if you're not going to leave me alone |
| 28. | I don't think that the evidence that vaccinated people are less contagious. I don't think it's very compelling, so why are the unvaccinated, all of a sudden, a danger |
| 29. | I certainly don't understand the push to get children vaccinated, I think that's absolutely reprehensible. |
| 30. | Leftists say trust big pharma. What! REALLY! you guys? I don't understand that at all. |
| 31. | (Mockingly) As long it's for health and safety it's always good, Not to get conspiratorial here, but the same damn thing is going to happen with the climate change push |
| 32. | It's already being reconfigured as "well, it's the biggest public health issue of our time" |
| 33. | No, I don't think so. Overreaching bureaucrats are. I think that's especially true of the Cob26 bunch |
| 34. | Chinese are building > 100 nuclear power plants and we can't build one? |
| 35. | Imagine how much wind is needed to push your car down the road, we should put the windmills in front of the politician's home |
| 36. | To save the climate, make power as cheap as possible |
| 37. | Make people as rich as possible because the richer they get the more they care about the environment |
| 38. | That pattern is clear in China and India |
| 39. | Here's a cool little fact, as CO2 levels rise, plants can grow in dryer environments. |
| 40. | Cob26 (g) |
| 41. | Has 200 goals and that's too many, the problem is you have to prioritize them and Bjourne Lumborg (g) is the only one willing to |
| 42. | I read 200 books on the environment and sustainable development and what I learned is things are way better than anyone thinks |
| 43. | The best way to save the planet is to make poor people rich as fast as we possibly can |
| 44. | The biggest problem is overfishing the oceans |
| 45. | What does sustainable mean? and over what time frame? 5000 years? Why should we care? God only knows what the world will be like |
| 46. | Look what computer technology is doing. We can't plan out that far. 100 years? Well, we're all dead then. |
| 47. | We should care. But how should we care bc we can't predict that far out? The timeframe is really crucial. |
| 48. | And the fact that there are 200 goals that's like there are 0 goals |
| 49. | At any moment you can only do 1 thing so you have to prioritize |
| 50. | I ask why aren't these goals prioritized? They all have separate constituencies. |
| 51. | 200 goals is just chaos |
| 52. | Lomborg prioritizes goals by cost/benefit |
| 53. | 15:15 |
| 54. | You might think "we should care" but how should we care? |
| 55. | You can't predict that far out, the timeframe is really crucial |
| 56. | There are always assumptions you have to use to build your analysis |
| 57. | That doesn't take everything into account? A- Everything can't be taken into account & B- Do you have a better idea? If not what good is your criticism |
| 58. | I haven't seen a better idea than Lomberg's idea, from anyone |
| 59. | Obama says "We're going to have to sacrifice", Who's going to sacrifice? |
| 60. | Let's talk about sacrifice. Let the old people freeze in the dark. |
| 61. | What's gonna happen in Europe if we get a cold winter? |
| 62. | Who's gonna sacrifice? Let's play leftist for a moment. |
| 63. | There are hierarchies, say competence hierarchies, corrupted by power to some degree |
| 64. | You said our institutions are corrupt, but you have to be judicious, which institutions? How are they corrupt? Where are they corrupt at a level of detail |
| 65. | In a manner that allows us to fix them rather than replace them wholesale |
| 66. | In a hierarchy, when there's stress, illness, and death climb from the bottom up |
| 67. | That's why you want to be near the top of a hierarchy |
| 68. | Otherwise, why would you strive for it? |
| 69. | There are other reasons |
| 70. | Maybe, you want to do good for other people, motivated by power, maybe a psychopath, there's lots of other reasons |
| 71. | One of the consequences of success is that you don't die, so who dies first? |
| 72. | Once we stress the system, say we double energy prices, what's the sacrifice? Old poor people |
| 73. | Well there are too many people on the planet we can cull a few (sarcastically) |
| 74. | This is the thing that bugs me so much, okay leftists which side are you on here? |
| 75. | Are you gonna sacrifice the poor to your hypothetical future utopia? (answers) Yeah, they're all gonna die anyway cause the planet's gonna burn anyway. (his answer) |
| 76. | No, it's not. The IPCC (g) never said that |
| 77. | There is no consensus in science. That's not how science works |
| 78. | We probably shouldn't change natural environments any faster than we have to because of unexpected consequences |
| 79. | Net 0. As soon as you hear 0 you know someone is not thinking. Zero tolerance for drugs. (Dave) Zero deaths for Covid, Zero is the wrong number, zero pollution |
| 80. | Manure from cows, people go to the bathroom, there's not zero pollution, it's an empty talking point to put up a flag that you're on the right side |
| 81. | It's not differentiated, thoughtful, thorough, detailed oriented thinking at the level that will actually produce solutions |
| 82. | There's no discussion of "What are we aiming at here?" |
| 83. | How about "copious [abundant] energy for everyone, as clean as possible" |
| 84. | In that order, copious energy, lowest possible price, resilient stable systems |
| 85. | To their credit, the democrats are building resilience goals in relation to the power grid into the infrastructure bill |
| 86. | That's necessary because we should be stress-testing those systems constantly |
| 87. | If you're on the left and you care about poor people, the only thing you should care about is cheap energy |
| 88. | Why is that? Let's be very precise about that |
| 89. | What makes people prosperous and secure? Work. |
| 90. | What is work? It's the expenditure of energy. |
| 91. | What is energy? Work. What is work? Wealth. |
| 92. | If you want to deal with poverty, energy is everything |
| 93. | Here's another fact. Americans have knocked the co2 output down 14% in the last couple of decades. |
| 94. | You know why? Fracking. It made natural gas cheap and replaced dirtier forms of energy. It made you way less reliant on OPEC and the Russians |
| 95. | And how is that not good for planetary stability? |
| 96. | You talk about the environment. How about not a 3rd world war, cause that's not so good for the environment |
| 97. | Who would have predicted that fracking knocked down co2 14%? |
| 98. | In Shellenberger's book Apocolypse Never (g) |
| 99. | To knock Co2 down make India switch to coal as fast as possible. |
| 100. | You think coal? Why? It's better than wood |
| 101. | Then you switch from coal to natural gas |
| 102. | Maybe if we get our act together and have some sense we can change from natural gas to fission |
| 103. | Then we can have cheap power for everyone, then what happens, everyone is rich, then everyone cares about the environment |
| 104. | Let's not call it climate change because that's annoying |
| 105. | From the conferences. Let's stop people from doing x. Why not do something instead |
| 106. | We have to be judicious in our institutional criticisms |
| 107. | The infrastructure bill was nowhere as stupid as it could have been |
| 108. | White House messaging is 2% diversity/equity which isn't too bad because zero is asking for too much |
| 109. | Systemantics by John Gall (g) great book |
| 110. | Dictum: The system doesn't do what its name says it does. The question is what does it do? You have to look |
| 111. | Social services what do they do? The system had no idea of where the money they were spending went |
| 112. | Tried to get: How much of the welfare $ spent actually goes to recipients? Couldn't find the data. |
| 113. | Then I realized Social Services, what does it do? Probably spends 95% of it's $ on bureaucrats implementing Social Services programs |
| 114. | Should I be cynical about that? No. It's hard to distribute $ and if 5% goes to its target that might not be to bad. It's not greater but better than a deficit or zero |
| 115. | Many charities if they give 10% to recipients they're doing well |
| 116. | What do congresspeople do? |
| 117. | Hypothetically, they analyze policy, set up strategies, talk to their constituents. No, they spend 25 hours a week fundraising |
| 118. | Fundraising is needed because they have to be elected every 2 years. |
| 119. | Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater |
| 120. | New York City is a great city, it's a great country, you have a work of art |
| 121. | Don't screw it up with facile criticisms |
| 122. | There are things wrong because they always are |
| 123. | The devil's in the details. You have to do a detailed analysis |
| 124. | Leftists say "The whole judicial system is corrupt". What is the evidence? The disproportional incarceration rate. That's a fairly damning indictment |
| 125. | Where exactly is it going wrong? Exactly, precisely, procedurely, so that we can fix it? |
| 126. | (leftist) The whole thing has to be burned to the ground. (JP answers) Yea well NO and you aren't thinking so you're not helpful |
| 127. | Take the differential incarceration apart, man that's a rats nest, it's complicated, tangled up with slavery, Jim Crow, literacy, childhood, single-parent families, violent communities |
| 128. | the drug war, policy, implicit racism because that's not zero, it's very very complicated |
| 129. | People don't want a detailed analysis of problems they want to label it with a low-resolution representation, like a 1-pixel representation |
| 130. | and then contrast it with the wrong 1-pixel representation and feel the moral virtue if they'd actually solved the problem |
| 131. | It's not just biases it's also heuristics and there's a difference |
| 132. | A heuristic is a functional simplification. The image you see of me is a heuristic, you're not seeing me, I'm not there |
| 133. | Use the simplest thumbnail you can use to get the job done. |
| 134. | Then the question is "what is the job?" |
| 135. | Ask how much moral superiority are you striving for and the answer is a lot |
| 136. | That's how a heuristic turns into a bias |
| 137. | You don't know what you don't know |
| 138. | People want to fix the electrical system who couldn't run a wire in their house |
| 139. | Does that matter? Yes it does, unless there's a chain of causality built from the highest level abstractions right down to the power outlet itself the plan is deeply flawed |
| 140. | People don't have time to solve the big problems, know the casual elements |
| 141. | cop26 (g) |
| 142. | (Dave Rubin asks a question and JP says) What do you mean exactly, the political battles, what.. |
| 143. | Let's look at what the tech cos are doing. Let's play Angel's advocate |
| 144. | Tech cos are figuring out what you want and need and delivering it as fast as possible |
| 145. | Lying turns heuristic into a bias, information into disinformation |
| 146. | Can't demonize the tech cos totally 3000 miles away and we're having a conversation that a million people will watch that you can publish in 5 minutes |
| 147. | Zoom has a real-time translator, I can talk to anyone in the world and record it |
| 148. | The oversimplification and demonization has to stop |
| 149. | Antifa 800 people. |
| 150. | How do we protect ourselves from 800 malevolent psychopaths? Which is the endless question of the human race. |
| 151. | Men are less agreeable than women 60/40. All the really disagreeable people are men |
| 152. | Women like disagreeable men more than agreeable |
| 153. | The more disagreeable you are the less empathic, compassionate, and polite you are, less generous, less concerned with others, the more concerned with yourself and your victories |
| 154. | Why would women pick men who are more disagreeable than them? The Beauty and the Beast problem. Disagreeable but tameable. Don't want a psychopath to take him out |
| 155. | Summer of Love |
| 156. | What about the psychopaths, when do they come out |
| 157. | Women have to protect their infants but can't because they're smaller, they need men who can guard them so they need guards, men who are that agreeable |
| 158. | You have to have generosity, toughness to keep down the cheaters and miscreants. Psychopaths are about 3% of the population |
| 159. | I'm appalled at the faculty |
| 160. | Continually secede territory to the administration one cowardly decision at a time, micro-decisions at a time |
| 161. | The sin of the left is cowardly retreats on micro issues |
| 162. | Doing things for power, see what happens, that's hell |
| 163. | Even if you get what you want by the time you get it you'll be a psychopath, no love, just corruption |
| 164. | Paradise (me: dangerous word) |
| 165. | If someone asks "Do you believe in God?", What do you mean by "believe" |
| 166. | Just ask the person what they think and don't try to win try to learn (referring to a conversation with Sam Harris) |
| 167. | Good is the opposite of evil whatever that is |
| 168. | What's common among good men is god |